This English executive brief introduces the complete Russian-language research article. The full study separates historical source evidence from original analysis and labels hypothetical calculations. It is available through the link below.
Read the complete study in Russian ↗The following is Human Fintech’s analysis
Follow the purchase through its full life.
The merchant, lender and customer do not share one profit measure. Additional sales can coexist with lower merchant contribution, while an attractive commission can conceal costly servicing for the lender. Analyse first instalments, refunds and overlapping commitments separately. A return should be followed through the order, the credit balance and the actual movement of money. Otherwise a clean checkout metric can hide an unresolved customer obligation.
Use mature cohorts and a merchant baseline.
Compare customers at the same age of their repayment schedule. Distinguish losses relative to financed principal from losses relative to purchase value, and keep funding and operating costs visible. For the merchant, test incremental contribution after returns and payment fees, rather than treating financed turnover as additional demand. The full Russian study includes hypothetical operator and merchant models and a combined stress scenario. CFPB observations concern defined historical US samples and should not be presented as universal BNPL performance.
Sources for the full study.
[1] Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The Buy Now, Pay Later Market. Декабрь 2025. Данные шести компаний за 2019–2023 годы; в статье отдельно обозначены показатели за 2023 год и различия знаменателей.
[2] Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Consumer Use of Buy Now, Pay Later and Other Unsecured Debt. Январь 2025. Сопоставленные обезличенные данные операторов и кредитных записей; приведённые показатели одновременного использования относятся к 2022 году.
White Fintech.
Parts II–III of White Fintech cover lending economics, funding and risk management: a foundation for further reading about the lending business.
Complete English edition, PDF + EPUB. Read the first 30 pages free, with no sign-up.